Wine competitions: a willing suspension of disbelief

Neil Pendock reports on the death knell tolling loudly for wine competitions, but is anyone listening?
 
At last statistical confirmation of something wine insiders have suspected for years - winning a show medal is a lottery. After tracking the performance of over 4,000 wines entered into 13 different US competitions, Bob Hodgson concludes "the probability of winning a gold medal at one competition is stochastically independent of the probability of receiving a gold at another competition, indicating that winning a gold medal is greatly influenced by chance alone." In plain American: "many wines that are viewed as extraordinarily good at some competitions are viewed as below average at others."

Bob's bad news for competition believers is reported in the Journal of Wine Economics. So with the truth out the bag, is it Farewell to Fairbairn, Voetsek Veritas, Clear off Classic Trophy Wine Show? Of course not! Newspapers still print daily horoscopes, decades after statisticians have disproved their predictive power and very few consumers will be reading JoWE or indeed this article.

In South Africa, the Department of Health is considering adding traditional healers to the list of suppliers of medical aid services. Wine competitions are a willing suspension of disbelief.

Powerful vested interests want the status quo to continue, even if it's really Lotto with bow-ties. Here is a non-exhaustive list of ten beneficiaries of BS:

Show owners need shrapnel for obvious financial reasons. Last month's Shiraz Challenge organized by WINE magazine introduced the hefty charge of R350 per entry which translates to a tidy sum of R86,450 from the 247 entries and this before sponsorship deals. Veritas and the various Trophy Shows are serious money spinners for their owners with profits picked up in the most unexpected ways: from selling the medals to winners to the disposal of left-over tasting samples to deals to buy winning wines for retail opportunities, commercial conflicts of interest a John Joseph Gotti would approve of.
Producers, distributors and retailers need shrapnel to shift stock off shelves. Of course if the bottle sticker read "this wine has not been entered into any show as scientific evidence proves the results are random" it would probably have the same effect on sales as a double gold with platinum knobs on - at least in the UK, where consumers take 38 seconds to choose their bottles from supermarket facings and most shoppers have left their reading glasses at home for vanity reasons, anyway.
PR spin doctors need shrapnel as each award is accompanied by a slew of billable press releases.
Magazine publishers need shrapnel as it provides copy for their ravenous organs who demand to be fed each month.
Hacks need shrapnel as it gives them something to report and saves on tasting, thinking and driving out beyond the black stump to find copy of their own.
Competition judges need shrapnel as the awarding thereof brings value to their otherwise often sad and lonely lives plus free samples from producers they can sell.
Statisticians need shrapnel to write dazzling papers showing the whole thing up as a scam.
Winemakers need shrapnel as medals lead to moolah and are useful ammunition in annual wage negotiations. Shrapnel also helps with self-esteem issues.
Even sighted wine guides need shrapnel to guide their own pontifications and award of platitudes - Idi Amin in uniform is a powerful incentive to sighted glory.
The wine drinking public needs shrapnel, as the public presentation of awarded wines at a salubrious five star venue makes for a nice evening out at an affordable price - even if the samples being swirled, sniffed and sipped were donated to start with. And where else do you get to ogle gorgeous youngsters who hang on your every comment without being called a dirty old bag/fag/hag.
So now that statisticians agree that its luck rather than terroir, vineyard management or cellar technique that creates vinous icons, banks and other financial institutions should rethink their sponsorship of competitions and clear the decks for the natural sponsors: Sun International, Gold Reef and Grand Parade.

Competitions could even be aired on the All Africa Poker Channel on DStv instead of a banquet at the Cape Town Convention Centre and the black-tie dress code remains the same. Winning winemakers can still be sent to France to improve their technique with Monte Carlo instead of Montrachet as destination. Now that tobacco is on the back foot, the only socially acceptable addictions left for lifestyle luvvies are alcohol and gambling and with 2010 bearing down, cuvées and casinos makes sense. As usual, the Paardeberg is in the vanguard, in the shape of Lammershoek and their Roulette wines.