China Economy to Rebound as Stimulus Spurs Investment (Update3)(1)
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy, the world’s third largest, may rebound this quarter as Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package cushions the effects of the global recession.
Urban fixed-asset investment surged by almost a third in March and industrial-output growth accelerated, reports accompanying China’s gross domestic product figures showed yesterday. First-quarter GDP grew 6.1 percent, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as exports slumped.
“The economy has gained significant momentum since February,” said Sun Mingchun, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong, who predicts the economy will expand 8 percent this year. “We still expect a V-shaped recovery.”
A pickup in China will contribute “strongly” to growth in the rest of Asia by increasing demand for commodities and products from around the region, according to the World Bank. Wen has cautioned that while the economy is in better-than- expected shape, China is yet to establish a solid foundation for a recovery.
“China has bounced and I think it’s very important,” Barclays Plc President Robert Diamond said in an interview yesterday in New York. “The impact that that can have, if we’re right and we see this continuation in stronger Asian countries, is pretty phenomenal.”
Newman’s Optimism
Barclays Capital raised its estimate for economic growth this year to 7.2 percent from 6.7 percent because of the first- quarter data. UBS AG increased its forecast to as much as 7.5 percent from 6.5 percent previously and Royal Bank of Scotland’s estimate rose to 7 percent from 5 percent.
Merrill Lynch expects second-quarter growth of 7.2 percent, climbing to 8 percent for 2009.
“China got its stimulus plan started months ahead of the U.S. and it’s really working,” said Frank Newman, chairman of Shenzhen Development Bank, who served as a deputy secretary at the U.S. Treasury from 1994 to 1995. “We see a lot of it in action because we are financing it.”
Economists have been increasing their forecasts since February. The median estimate of 15 surveyed by Bloomberg News before the release of yesterday’s data was for 7.7 percent growth this year, up from 7.2 percent in February.
Nissan Motor Co. said its sales of passenger cars in China rose 36 percent in March from a year earlier as stimulus measures boosted confidence and attracted more buyers into showrooms. Anhui Conch Cement Co., China’s biggest maker of the building material, said this month that sales volume jumped 15 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.
